Distribution shifts of Vaccinium berry wild relatives in China under climate and land‐use changes

Predicting species distributions under future environmental change is essential for understanding biodiversity responses andinforming conservation planning. Vaccinium, a genus that includes important germplasm resources for many commercial berrycrops, comprises diverse berry wild relatives (BWRs) in China, yet research on their responses to environmental changes re-mains limited. Here, we used occurrences of eight Vaccinium BWRs in China and ensemble species distribution models to predicttheir distributions in the 2070s under climate and land-use changes (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) together with two dispersalscenarios (20 km/decade and full dispersal). We found stronger effects from climate-related variables than land-use variables onthe distributions of the eight BWRs. The current potential distribution areas were largely consistent with known distributions,with generally high or moderate suitability. Most species would have their range size contracted, while two species were pro-jected to have considerable range size increased. There was a trend of range shifts toward higher latitudes for most species. Basedon projected persistent suitable areas, three northeastern distributed species would have their habitat limited in the GreaterKhingan Mountains area, while five southern distributed species would harbor relative stability in their own specific areas.These findings enhance our understanding of how climate and land-use changes may reshape the distributions of VacciniumBWRs in China and provide valuable insights for their long-term conservation and management.