Ecological niche models for four native cockroach species (Blattaria: Blattellidae: Ectobiinae) in the Netherlands

This paper aims at modelling the spatial distribution of the cockroach species Capraiellus panzeri, Ectobius lapponicus, Ectobius pallidus and Ectobius sylvestris within the Netherlands and comparing the habitat preferences of these species. Maxent was used to calculate habitat suitability and to identify environmental variables underlying the differences in observed distribution patterns. A sub-sampling procedure was employed to test model stability. Models were evaluated by calculating the Area Under the Curve (AUC). The analyses show that except for the costal dune area, the western part of the Netherlands is unsuitable for the species. Suitability predictions for C. panzeri, E. lapponicus and E. sylvestris are very similar, with suitable areas concentrated in the eastern and the north-eastern parts of the country and along the western coast. The prediction model for E. pallidus is somewhat more restricted, especially in the northern part of the country. Soil type, land cover and altitudinal range are most important in predicting the distribution of all species. A correspondence analysis was performed to identify the association between the species distribution and the most influential environmental variables. Correspondence analysis indicated that the species distributions are comparably associated with soil type and land cover while species appear to have different preferences with respect to altitudinal range.